Netbook sales this year are expected to top 22M this year according one of the industry analysts (iSuppli). Although the volume is still trailing behind traditional laptop sales, Netbook sales are set to increase by 69% this year. I have been a fan of Netbooks for a while and have had a trusty Sony TR1-MP since 2004. The TR1 was around before anyone had even invented the word "Netbook", but the machine was aimed at the same market. At the time, it was marketed as an "ultralight" notebook. I use it almost exclusively for travelling and often take it on trips abroad (yes, even holidays!) for accessing the Internet. It is getting a bit old now, but who cares when all you use it for is web browsing.So all of this got me thinking. Why are Netbooks popular now? And it suddenly occurred to me that there is a link here with Cloud computing. Let's ignore all the rhetoric and hype around cloud computing and focus on what it means for real people (people like you and me). Well, first off it means that I can access applications that I need from wherever I am - I have a work email account that I access via OWA and a personal email account that I access via a web interface. Sure, I use Outlook running on a PC to access them too, but this becomes less and less necessary as the web (or should I say "Cloud") versions of Outlook improve. Plus, I can use applications like this one (Blogspot) and all I need is Internet access.
Secondly, as well as being able to access applications on the web, I can now access data on the web. Increasingly, I am using secure storage on the web for photos and documents. Is it secure? Probably, more secure that the 4GB data stick that I used to carry around in my pocket (I used to get palpitations every time I thought I had lost it, so now I leave it at home and use online storage instead).
So given that it is getting easier to access applications AND data online, it is no wonder that devices such as Netbooks are becoming more popular. The interesting thing here is whether this is going to be a trend that will impact other devices. If this is the case, then:
- Why aren't more Netbooks 3G ready? In other words, they don't need the dongle. There are very few machines to choose from. Dell seems to be going backwards - the Mini 9 did have 3G, the Mini 10 does not. Since the Mini 9 has been discontinued, Dell no longer sells a 3G enabled Netbook.
- Battery life will be king. Blackberries have great battery life, smartphones suck. The Mac Book Pro is great, but it's battery life wipes it many of it's advantages (IMHO). The Samsung N120 has a battery life of 9 hours (now we are talking!), but it still isn't 3G enabled!
- Mobile broadband will need to get better. Much better. I am a Vodafone Mobile Broadband customer and, maybe it is me, but my experience hasn't been great. I would hardly say that it has worked "out of the box". I have found coverage to be very patchy (yes, I know if I only used it at home it would be fine, but that kind of defeats the object of "Mobile" broadband!) and the connection software has been very temperamental (I suspect there are driver conflicts on the three (!) laptops that I have tried! I can get it to work, but it is a bit of a fiddle and would not like to rely on it in a jam). And when I do get it to work, the download speeds are very variable.
However, as with all new technology, these wrinkles will get ironed out and the trends we see today in the early adopter community, will be set to become mass market 2-3 years from now.
Postscript: An article on the BBC website today (16-07-09) reported that according to Gartner that like for like PC sales are down over 10% on this time last year. Netbooks (or mini laptops as they refer to them), on the other hand, are up 20%. More information here.
